It was 60 days prior that the young forward found himself on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered as the Villa manager admonished him over failing to anticipate a pass in behind. Back then, with the team endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear if his displays were a symptom or the reason for Villa's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, in contrast, the sideline response was decidedly more positive. As the England international drilled in his brace-sealing goal to restore Villa's lead, Emery tore off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The team were on their way to a 10th successive win and despite not winning their initial half-dozen fixtures, find themselves a mere three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Hopefuls?
It remains a particularly tough question to resolve. The historical record, a general sense of the club, suggests not. Furthermore, they've rarely been entirely convincing in many games, even as the positive results have piled up.
According to Opta, on just two occasions has the team posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a side which has put together 10 in a row, Villa seem strangely fragile – but at the moment the margins are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic appears to be to exchange chances with an opponent and then rely on Rogers to rescue them with a couple of precise efforts. This was the case at Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and again versus Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal originated from a brilliant finish, curled just inside the post from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of the opener capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, Manchester United managed more efforts and more shots on target. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival the club will encounter in the near future. Their key man, almost certainly, will not continue to blasting the football into the top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Could it be an alternative path whereby, instead of results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players might still rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins might resume scoring again.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the performer he showed during his peak.
- The defensive duo will eventually come back from the treatment room, strengthening a sometimes shaky defence.
Maybe within that lies the potential of a title challenge, but they surely cannot keep relying on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, this was unforeseen. Few believed Aston Villa would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt two months ago, no one envisioned Rogers by the end of the year would be spearheading a championship pursuit and appearing as a crucial player for the national team.
This remarkable period is to be savoured precisely because it seems so surreal. When the hero positioned himself before the Villa faithful after the match orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These spells do not happen often and should be relished.
