A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
